Phase II Project of Mirador Copper Mine Delayed, LME Copper Surged Sharply Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $12,845/mt, initially touched a low of $12,792/mt, then rose straightly, fluctuated rangebound after maintaining and once stood above $13,090/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at $13,087.5/mt, a gain of 5.03%, hitting a record high again! Trading volume increased by 25,403 lots to 37,000 lots, and open interest increased by 3,352 lots to 339,000 lots, mainly driven by bulls adding positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened overnight at 100,890 yuan/mt, hit a bottom of 100,780 yuan/mt at opening, then its center rose, touched a high of 102,810 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound, and finally closed at 102,650 yuan/mt.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On January 4, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group announced that the Phase II project of the Mirador copper mine is expected to be delayed. The project was originally scheduled to be completed in June 2025, with trial production from July to December 2025 and official operation at the beginning of 2026. However, due to political volatility and frequent personnel changes in Ecuador, the signing progress of the Mining Contract was affected. The official operation can only be implemented after the Mining Contract is signed. As of the announcement date, the official operation time of the Mirador copper mine Phase II project remains uncertain, which is expected to have a certain impact on the company's operating performance in 2026.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 5, the SHFE copper 2601 contract rose from around 99,500 yuan/mt to 100,800 yuan/mt; the Contango spread between the front-month and the next-month contract ranged between 200-160 yuan/mt, and the import loss of SHFE front-month copper was about 1,300 yuan/mt. Traders with inventory considered the spot copper cathode market situation and their respective funding costs, holding prices firm and reluctant to sell. Combined with the slight rebound in market procurement sentiment compared with that before the holiday, spot transactions were promoted, and overall spot premiums/discounts moved up, shifting from a discount to a premium.
(2) Guangdong: On January 5, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a premium of 10-70 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium at 40 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,225 yuan/mt, up 1,380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,125 yuan/mt, up 1,385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, after the holiday, suppliers actively held prices firm, and overall trading improved compared with that before the holiday.
(3) Imported copper: On January 5, warrant prices were $38-38/mt, QP January, with the average price down $8/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-52/mt, QP January, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $0-12/mt, QP January, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 5, the futures closing price was 98,650 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -190 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 1,400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 86,900-87,100 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,378 yuan/mt, down 117 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,090 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, transactions of secondary copper rod during the day were very limited. Meanwhile, amid high copper prices, traders of recycled copper raw materials were not active in purchasing, waiting to see whether copper prices would maintain their trend after the holiday before making decisions.
Price: On the macro front, a strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold ore mine in northern Chile, triggered by a breakdown in labor negotiations, intensified market concerns about supply shortages. At the same time, the US may review the tariff exemption policy for copper in 2026, increasing the risk of supply reduction in non-US regions. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of domestic cargo increased, while arrivals of imported cargo were tight; demand side, market purchasing sentiment marginally recovered compared to pre-holiday levels, but overall demand remained suppressed due to the sharp surge in copper prices. Inventory side, as of January 5, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 7.83% WoW from the previous Wednesday and rose 151,900 mt YoY. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]